Predicting winners in the National Football League is, at best, a guessing game.
When you factor in the point spreads devised by those *&@#ers in Las Vegas, it’s a blind dart throw on top of a guessing game.
Then there’s this weekend, when most players on most teams have little to play for, aside from avoiding a season-ending cart ride to the locker room.
Two weeks ago, 27 of the NFL’s 32 teams remained alive for a playoff berth. Only nine -- including the Buffalo Bills -- enter Sunday’s slate of games with a playoff spot within reach, but not yet secured.
And only two contests -- New Orleans at Carolina and the New York Jets at St. Louis -- involve a pair of competitors with their seasons on the line.
As for the rest, they’re all trying to stay healthy for the playoffs, or for the offseason.
Buffalo’s guests, the Pittsburgh Steelers, embody the former category. Locked into the top seed in the AFC and the bye that comes with it, the Steelers will assuredly send their best into battle until the bitter end.
Of the first quarter, that is.
But boringly predictable trends rarely turn out that way. Every year, teams that have everything to play for get beat by better ones resting for the playoffs, or by worse ones that everyone thinks will run for the bus.
That said, Pittsburgh-Buffalo should follow form. Alleged contenders that falter with their season on the line are generally plagued by self-doubt, knowing that they really don’t deserve the postseason prize within their grasp.
If the Bills don’t qualify to suit up after Sunday, it won’t be because they aren’t delivering playoff-quality performances. The six-game winning streak that brought them to this point ranks among the most impressive runs in postseason history. A win over the 14-1 Steelers would only enhance that, no matter which Steelers they beat, or what the Jets and Broncos do.
The Broncos host Indianapolis, with the Colts, like the Steelers, in avoid-the-trainer’s-room mode. So Buffalo’s hopes to avoid missing the playoffs despite winning 10 games for the first time will depend on the Rams-Jets outcome.
That game occurs simultaneously with Buffalo’s. Should the Jets win in St. Louis, that will leave the Bills – assuming they’re victorious earlier in the afternoon – desperately hoping the Colts summon some wholly unnecessary pride. Or get very lucky.
The Bills, favored by a whopping nine points over a team that hasn’t lost since September, can’t control the outcome of the other two games that will determine their fate. But even if they don't get the help they need, the wait for next year should be a lot more enjoyable than the last few. Bills, 27-13.
San Francisco at New England (-14): The Patriots don’t have anything to play for, but the 49ers don’t seem to have much interest in rallying to save coach Dennis Erickson’s job. Patriots, 30-0.
Miami at Baltimore (-10.5): The Ravens know they’re not really a playoff team. And they won’t be, even after eking one out against the Dolphins. Ravens, 13-10.
Minnesota (-4) at Washington: The Vikings can clinch a playoff spot with a win. Of course, they could have won the NFC North with a win against Green Bay at home last week. But they should have enough to squeak in. Vikings, 24-14.
Cincinnati (-3) at Philadelphia: If you thought the Eagles mailed it in last week … Bengals, 30-14.
Green Bay at Chicago (-3): The Packers wrapped up the division last week, hence the line. This is the kind of empty wins that bad teams console themselves with during the winter. Bears, 17-12.
New Orleans at Carolina (-7.5): The Saints know, deep down. Panthers, 30-21.
Detroit (-3) at Tennessee: The Lions’ season ends with optimism, the Titans’ with bewilderment. Lions, 25-20.
N.Y. Jets (-3.5) at St. Louis: Buffalo’s best chance for help comes from a team that hasn’t beaten a decent opponent all year. Still, the Jets recent struggles and Chad Pennington’s whining make the Rams a tempting pick. Tempting, but … Jets, 24-19.
Cleveland at Houston (-10): Another opposite-direction finale. Texans, 40-8.
Tampa Bay at Arizona (-3): And another. Cardinals 23-17.
Atlanta at Seattle (-6): We’ll find out in mid-January whether taking three weeks off (including the bye week) before the playoffs, like Atlanta, is really such a good idea. Seahawks, 20-10.
Indianapolis at Denver (-8.5): From the irony department, Buffalo’s season could depend on former backup quarterback Troy Brown, who was signed by the Colts this week from their practice squad and could play in the fourth quarter. But probably not. Broncos, 30-17.
Jacksonville at Oakland (no line): Byron Leftwich’s health took this one off the board. But whether he plays or not, or the Jags believe they have a realistic playoff shot (they don’t), the Raiders gave it up weeks ago. Jaguars, 21-6.
Kansas City (-3) at San Diego: FLUTIEPHILE ALERT! FLUTIEPHILE ALERT! Little Dougie Touchdown Hero could see extensive action as the Chargers rest Drew Brees. Chiefs, 34-27.
Dallas at N.Y. Giants (-2): This could be Vinny Testaverde’s last start. As the slinger of countless gratuitous cheap shots over the years, it would be sort of nice to see him go out in style. Cowboys, 18-15.
(Last week: 9-7 overall, 8-7-1 against the spread. Season: 154-86 overall, 127-109-4 against the spread.)
| Niagara Falls Reporter | www.niagarafallsreporter.com | Dec. 31 2004 |