In 2002, the Buffalo Bills defense spent the year aspiring to mediocrity, and usually fell short.
After establishing a blistering pace over the first eight games, the offense sputtered through November and December.
Buffalo's special teams were anything but consistent, opening the year with a pair of point-yielding breakdowns and surrendering crucial field positions throughout the schedule.
Gregg Williams drew fire for his decision to punt on fourth down at New England's 32-yard line in the season's pivotal game, and offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride's willingness to eschew the running game put an unbearable load on Drew Bledsoe's shoulders.
All that, and the Bills still made a five-win jump from 2001 to finish one game out of first place in the AFC East lead. A single tackle by the kickoff coverage team in the opener against the New York Jets and a couple clock-killing first downs in Kansas City, and Buffalo would have reached the playoffs.
Take that near-miss, add the top roaming linebacker, hole-clogging defensive tackle and pass-rushing blitzer available in free agency, along with what looks like a strong draft and hires that bring both youth and experience to Williams' staff of assistants. With no significant losses beyond Peerless Price -- the importance of which remains wide open to debate -- and you've got one legitimate contender to go deep into the playoffs.
On paper, at least. The real impact of Takeo Spikes, Sam Adams, Jeff Posey, assistant head coach and zone-blitz guru Dick LeBeau and defensive line coach Tim Krumrie will show itself starting Sunday.
And there couldn't be a much better test for Buffalo's new looks on both sides of the ball than their opening guests, the New England Patriots.
A season after winning the Super Bowl, the Patriots didn't even make the playoffs in 2002. But in their two meetings with Buffalo, they exposed Buffalo's most glaring offensive and defensive flaws. Bill Belichick's flooded secondary thoroughly frustrated Bledsoe, while Gilbride failed to adjust his throw-deep-and-often game plans.
Meanwhile, New England quarterback Tom Brady flawlessly exploited Buffalo's lack of a pass rush and plodding outside linebackers with screens and slants.
New England's sweep by an aggregate score of 65-24 showed just how far Buffalo had to go. Sunday's opener will demonstrate just how far the Bills have come.
(Editors' note: For the BillStuff prediction on this and every other NFL game this season, check out the Niagara Falls Reporter's online edition at www.niagarafallsreporter.com each Thursday.)
And now, a look at the coming season, both for the Bills and the rest of the National Football League:
FEARLESS FORECAST: With the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins suffering from a devastating injury and a mysterious over-hyping, respectively, the AFC East race will come down to Buffalo and New England.
That's pretty appropriate, since the teams also meet two days after Christmas, in the regular season finale.
The Bills possess more dangerous offensive weapons in Bledsoe, Eric Moulds and Travis Henry. Brady should continue to improve, but New England still hasn't found a consistent answer at running back and lacks a downfield threat at receiver.
Belichick gives New England a strategic edge over just about anybody on defense, but the offseason additions draw the Bills at least even in terms of talent.
The Bills won't get swept again by the Patriots. Even a split boosts Buffalo to 11-5 and the division title.
THE REST OF THE FIELD: The Patriots make the playoffs as a wild-card. Tennessee wins the AFC South, Pittsburgh prevails in the North and Denver in the West. Kansas City earns the other wild-card berth.
In the NFC, Philadelphia (East), Green Bay (North), Tampa Bay (South) and St. Louis (West) win their divisions, with Atlanta and New Orleans wrapping up the wild cards.
In the interest of boosting expectations to an unreasonable level, BillStuff stands by its midsummer prediction of the Bills in the Super Bowl. Against, let's say, the Bucs.
UNDER PRESSURE: Williams informed the media at the beginning of training camp that he's not going to discuss his status during the final year of his contract.
That's OK. The media and fans will surely do it for him, particularly if Buffalo gets off to anything remotely approaching a slow start.
MAKE HIM SIT: By all accounts, No. 1 draft pick Willis McGahee's recovery from the horrific knee injury suffered in the Fiesta Bowl is well ahead of schedule, and he could start practicing as early as October.
But barring an injury to Henry, there's no reason to let McGahee do anything more than that until 2004.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT (AFC): The Jets' blazing finish to 2002, abetted by the overwhelming hype accorded to every sports franchise with "New York" in its name, made Gang Green a popular offseason Super Bowl pick.
At least until Chad Pennington broke his wrist. If Vinny Testaverde wasn't good enough last year at age 39 to keep Pennington on the bench, what makes anyone think he's good enough to take the Jets to the postseason at 40?
Just look at the list of 40-year-old full-time quarterbacks who have guided their team to the playoffs. Actually, never mind. There aren't any.
Gamebreaking receiver Laverneus Coles' departure for Washington and another year on Curtis Martin's legs isn't going to help, either.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT (NFC): San Francisco spent the last few seasons on the brink of greatness.
Replacing Steve Mariucci with failed former Seattle coach Dennis Erickson was more a statement on chaos in the 49ers' front office than either man's abilities. With Jeff Garcia's ailing back making his season-long availability a serious question, San Francisco plunges from the brink into the abyss.
BS DOUBLE STANDARD AWARD: Let's see -- Oakland linebacker Bill Romanowski has been fined eight times over the years for offenses ranging from incredibly cheap shots on opposing players to spitting in the face of San Francisco wide receiver J.J. Stokes.
A truly class act off the field, as well, Romanowski was charged with conspiracy and possession of a controlled substance -- a diet drug used more often by athletes as a stimulant. As part of a plea deal, he blamed his doctor and wife for his actions.
Now the 16-year veteran's status with the Raiders is in doubt after breaking teammate Marcus Williams' orbital bone during a mid-practice fight.
Yet the outrage demonstrated by the nation's NFL experts and sports-talk hosts when a Terrell Owens does something as patently offensive as pulling a Sharpie out of his sock to sign an autograph after a touchdown has been nowhere to be seen or heard.
That, of course, has nothing to do with race.
There's talk of good, old, colorful Romo keeping his job if he attends anger-management counseling.
The guy belongs in jail.
STILL CREAKING: Romanowski was one of the veterans who helped get the Raiders to the last Super Bowl, where they were thoroughly exposed by former coach Jon Gruden's Buccaneers as too old and too slow, particularly on defense.
To rectify that, Oakland went out and did, well, nothing.
Yes, Tim Brown and Jerry Rice are still great players, and Rich Gannon's offense will produce a ton of points. But there's no reason to think that they're somehow going to be better than the team that got gutted, 48-21, by Tampa Bay.
In fact, look for the Raiders to get a lot worse. Like 6-10 worse.
| Niagara Falls Reporter | www.niagarafallsreporter.com | September 2 2003 |