As the previously 6-1 New York Jets discovered last Sunday, the Buffalo Bills are suddenly pretty tough to beat.
At least in Orchard Park.
In their last three home outings, the Bills have proven capable of thumping a really bad team, dominating a pretty bad team and rather thoroughly handing a pretty good team.
They applied the same recipe in all the wins over Miami, Arizona and the Jets – dominant defense, solid special teams and efficient offense.
Whether Mike Mularkey and staff can whip up the same winning concoction Sunday night in Foxborough, well, we’ll see.
Winning on the road against anyone in the National Football League is no easy proposition, a lesson reinforced on the same Sunday a few weeks back for Seattle in Arizona and St. Louis in Miami.
It’s even more difficult against a decent opponent. And for all the injuries New England is presently dealing with, the Patriots remain much better than decent.
Particularly given the propensity shown by Buffalo’s offensive thinkers to abandon the game plan, along with all reason, at the first sign of trouble when away from home.
A week after pummeling the Dolphins with a healthy portion of Willis McGahee and barely a dash of Drew Bledsoe, they reverted to a meager portion of Travis Henry and a ridiculous amount of foolishness in Baltimore.
They’ve since turned things over to McGahee on a full-time basis, but that’s no guarantee that offensive coordinator Tom Clements won’t flip to the “goofy trick plays” section of the playbook if McGahee gets stuffed early.
Against the Ravens, the Bills ignored the fundamental law of reverses and fancy screens -- you have to establish that you can execute the basics before you can get tricky.
That’s particularly true against a team like New England, which is far more reliant on quickness and smarts than size or brute strength. Pittsburgh showed that a power running game can dent the Patriots’ defense, and that Tom Brady shows signs of mortality if forced to play from behind.
Riding McGahee early is not only the most likely route to that enviable position, it’s also the best way to keep Bledsoe free of the jitters, if not downright panic, that have beset him during his first two visits to his former team while wearing a Buffalo uniform.
He, and his offense, have been miserable in each appearance, never threatening to make a game of either outing.
The Bills played the Patriots on more-or-less even terms for nearly 58 minutes on Oct. 3 before one of the most heinous play calls in recent memory sent Bledsoe lumbering into disaster and New England home with a 31-17 win.
Simply playing well and keeping things respectable won’t be nearly enough this time out. Buffalo’s season, and quite possibly Bledsoe’s short-term starting status and long-term employment prospects, depend on a win that would pull the Bills to 4-5 after starting 0-4.
Normally, this would be the place to suggest that the odds are pretty good that Patriots coach/Bledsoe nemesis Bill Belichick figures to find some way to stifle the quarterback he exiled, even if it means putting Brady in the depleted secondary along with wide receiver/emergency cornerback Troy Brown.
In keeping with the policy of blind optimism adopted in this space last week, though, the pick is that Mularkey and Clements will use McGahee to keep Bledsoe out of harm’s way early, he’ll make a few plays to help Buffalo -- an 7.5-point underdog -- take a lead before halftime, and the defense will take care of the rest.
One absolute lock: We’re not going to see Bledsoe running a naked bootleg Sunday night. Bills, 20-17.
Baltimore (-1) at N.Y. Jets: We saw last year how lost the Jets look without Chad Pennington, and Bill Parcells apparently thought Vinny Testaverde, last year’s replacement, could do better than Quincy Carter in Dallas this year, so … Ravens, 18-6.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Cleveland: This would be a logical place for Pittsburgh to let up after two incredibly dominant wins, but not against the Browns. Steelers, 23-7.
Houston at Indianapolis (-9): Too big a spread for Indy’s defense to protect. Colts, 35-30.
Chicago at Tennessee (no line): This one’s off the board due to Steve McNair’s uncertain availability. No more Craig Krenzel jokes, but asking him to take the Bears to a third straight win, and second on the road, is a bit much. Titans, 17-13.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-3.5): Brian Griese lives, but the Falcons have recovered nicely from the Kansas City Massacre. Falcons, 31-19.
Detroit at Jacksonville (-3): With Byron Leftwich out, the Jaguars get pounced. Lions, 16-14.
Seattle (-1) at St. Louis: Seattle makes up for its collapse against the Rams at home. Seahawks, 34-26.
Kansas City (-3.5) at New Orleans: With two teams this wildly up-and-down, take Vermeil over Haslett. Chiefs, 38-31.
Cincinnati at Washington (-3): The Bengals are 0-4 on the road, the Redskins 1-3 at home. Carson Palmer looks like he’s starting to figure things out, though. Bengals, 19-16.
Minnesota at Green Bay (-4): No Randy Moss means bad things for Minnesota, after all. Packers, 37-28.
N.Y. Giants (-2.5) at Arizona: Is the Giants’ mirage starting to flicker a bit? Cardinals, 24-20.
Carolina at San Francisco (-1): The Panthers are bad. The 49ers are pathetic. Panthers, 28-23.
Philadelphia (-6) at Dallas: No matter how you spin it, Terrell Owens screaming at Donovan McNabb couldn’t have been a good sign. Cowboys, 23-20.
Last week: 7-7 overall, 8-6 against the spread. Season: 81-49 overall, 69-59-2 against the spread.
| Niagara Falls Reporter | www.niagarafallsreporter.com | Nov. 12 2004 |