GUESSING GAME BEGINS FOR BILLS, NFL

The brand-new National Football League season looks so wide-open, so evenly balanced, that not even the usually astute oddsmakers in Las Vegas know quite what to make of it yet.

Out of 16 opening-weekend matchups, only two involve a team favored by more than five points. And the underdogs in those games are the execrable Cardinals of Arizona and Chargers of San Diego, showing that there remains at least a touch of consistency.

Of the rest, seven home teams are favored by 3.5 points or less. The folks who set the line usually concede three points to the gracious hosts, they’re admitting they’ve got no idea about half of the games not involving the Cards or Bolts.

Buffalo’s opener against Jacksonville is one of the head-scratchers. Two teams coming off losing records with young head coaches, theoretically good defenses and productive running backs, but big questions under center add up to the traditional home-team trio of points.

Whether the line-setters give the Bills that customary benefit of the doubt again depends largely on what happens Sunday.

The Jaguars might seem like an ideal debut foe. Byron Leftwich started most of last season as a rookie, but remains a young quarterback, a species that rarely fares well when things get loud at Ralph Wilson Stadium, which they certainly figure to be on Sunday. And after staying healthy almost all of last year, Fragile Fred Taylor lived up to that moniker again this summer, though he’s listed as probable with a foot injury.

Defensive tackles Marcus Stroud and John Henderson, though, are more than capable of exploiting the custard-soft interior of Buffalo’s offensive line, which never quite solidified a year ago. And right tackle Mike Williams has yet to prove he’s ready to block anybody after a summer in which his status varied from dismal to AWOL.

The key for Buffalo, as it figures to be most of the season, is to keep the Jaguars from launching a full-scale assault on the statuesque (and that’s not meant in the glamorous way it’s usually used) Drew Bledsoe by running early, often and then some more.

Despite all the Willis McGahee hype, the Bills’ ability to grind it out hinges on Travis Henry. After taking it easy the last few weeks of exhibition season, Henry’s bruised ribs still have him listed as probable, and he’s expected to go at full strength on Sunday.

Almost exactly a year ago, Stroud and Henderson helped keep Henry pretty well in check, but Bledsoe strafed the overcommitted Jags defense in a 38-17 laugher that heightened the Super Bowl talk surrounding Buffalo, even amongst the national media.

That lasted all of six days.

This time, a win will mean the Bills, 6-10 a year ago, have improved a little more than the Jaguars, who went 5-11. At least when they meet in Orchard Park.

A loss, though, will signify that all the shuffling on Buffalo’s coaching staff and additions to the roster haven’t added up to much yet.

But it’s still early enough to be optimistic. Bills, 20-16.

Indianapolis at New England (-3.5): If the NFL’s splashy Thursday-night opener were in Indy, it would be a good spot for Peyton Manning and his horsies to show the Patriots aren’t unbeatable. It’s not, so they are – for at least another week. Patriots, 28-22.

Tennessee (-3) at Miami: How sad are things in Miami? Dolfans are excited about getting Lamar Gordon, who couldn’t even cut it as a backup in St. Louis. Isn’t Cecil Collins out of jail yet? Nice to see that Dave Wannstedt’s equal-opportunity coaching program keeps the talent-free Jay Fiedler employed, though. Titans, 27-6.

Oakland at Pittsburgh (-3.5): Rich Gannon won the Raiders’ starting quarterback job over Kerry Collins, but Kenny Stabler couldn’t help this bunch. Steelers, 23-10.

Tampa Bay at Washington (-2): Bringing a bunch of old Raiders to the Hurricane State isn’t going to help Jon Gruden, either. It’ll be a while before we know if Joe Gibbs was away too long, but the ‘Skins will be ready for this one. Redskins, 30-20.

Baltimore (-3) at Cleveland: The Ravens are the pick here as the most overrated team in the NFL. No matter how good your defense is, you still need a quarterback, and Kyle Boller isn’t even Trent Dilfer. Browns, 16-14.

Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets (-4.5): The Bengals will be better by December, but Carson Palmer’s got some learning to do first. Jets, 24-17.

Detroit at Chicago (-3): At least the Lions and Bears get to play each other twice a year. Bears, 13-7.

Arizona at St. Louis (-11): Nobody deserves to be a double-digit favorite on opening day, even against Arizona. Rams, 32-27.

Seattle (-2) at New Orleans: The Seahawks are right behind the Ravens on the overrated list. Saints, 34-29.

San Diego at Houston (-5): When it comes to the Chargers, the best bet is to avert your eyes and take the other team. Texans, 17-3.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (-9): It won’t take long to see how Kurt Warner stands up to a pass rush. Eagles, 34-14.

Dallas at Minnesota (-4.5): The Cowboys can’t keep up with the Vikings, especially if the officials enforce the no-contact-past-5-yards rule like they’ve been promising. Vikings, 33-19.

Atlanta (-3.5) at San Francisco: The Dennis Erickson firing watch begins. Falcons, 38-17.

Kansas City at Denver (-3): Denver still hasn’t settled on a replacement for Clinton Portis. K.C. doesn’t need one for Priest Holmes. Chiefs, 34-30.

Green Bay at Carolina (-3): Carolina starts proving its Super Bowl run wasn’t a fluke. Panthers, 27-21.