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Now what?
After the Buffalo Bills' season finally limped to a close Sunday in Miami, they're left facing at least as many questions as they answered during their worst season since the first year of Ronald Reagan's second term.
None is bigger than the first one facing more than half the teams in the National Football League -- who's the quarterback for next year?
Tom Donahoe's comments on Rob Johnson last week confirmed what anyone with a little bit of common sense already knew about the relationship between the Bills and their longtime quarterback of the future.
It's over.
Donahoe's not the type of man who says things off the top of his head, or without realizing exactly what effect his words carry. If he had any intention of bringing Johnson back, he would have started the renegotiation process with a call to agent David Dunn. Not with public doubts about the quarterback's willingness to accept a deal that amounts to a slap in the face.
To stay, Johnson would have to agree to a deal that means less money and no security. From the team's end, there's no other way. Had he stayed healthy and had a few more performances like the ones in Jacksonville and San Diego, the necessary contract restructuring would already be complete.
But he didn't. For him to return under his current contract, the Bills would have to devote more than 15 percent of their salary cap next year to a quarterback who has finished just 16 of his 27 starts in Buffalo. To soften the cap hit, they'd have to commit to him beyond 2002, which makes just as little sense. If Buffalo makes even a symbolic gesture to him, it comes in the form of a contract that requires him to give back part of his signing bonus and accept a series of option years, with his year-to-year fate wholly at the franchise's discretion.
A professional athlete returning money AND taking on all the risk? Not going to happen.
Whatever you think of Johnson as a quarterback or a person, agreeing to such a deal wouldn't show loyalty, but stupidity. He may not get even the reduced amount he could make in Buffalo elsewhere, but he'll land somewhere. His youth, arm and athletic ability (along with the generally hideous state of quarterbacking in the NFL) guarantee it.
Most likely, it will be somewhere that the offensive line isn't a battered, perpetually revolving joke. Somewhere that Doug Flutie has never played. Somewhere that fans and media don't take Johnson's personality, or alleged lack thereof, as a personal affront.
And maybe somewhere that someone can find a way to convince him that his belief that, if he just waits long enough, he'll make a play that winds up on ³Sportscenter,² is the same philosophy that keeps putting him in a doctor's office.
But it won't be in Buffalo.
Alex Van Pelt, on the other hand, will undoubtedly return. The incentive-laden five-year deal he signed last week guarantees that. But as the definitive starter?
Van Pelt unquestionably makes quicker decisions than Johnson, so he doesn't take the same sort of trainwreck sacks. The offense has sporadically run more smoothly during the second half of the season than it ever did during the first eight games. But the Bills went 2-6 during his eight starts. That's better than Johnson's 1-7, but improvement that marginal gets coaches fired pretty quickly.
Van Pelt understands and sees the game well, but simply lacks the arm to capitalize on his vision. That leads to his throws into heavy coverage, which lead to interceptions. Stretching his stats over a full season, he would have thrown more than 20 picks this year. Only Peyton Manning, Trent Green and Jon Kitna threw that many, and none of their teams got a whiff of the postseason.
Buffalo's relatively strong finish (when you start 1-10, that's a pretty low bar) resulted from improvements in the running game and on defense more than from anything Van Pelt did or didn't do.
The offensive and defensive lines should get stronger with a decent draft. Given the young talent at running back and in the secondary, along with the anticipated return of middle linebacker Sam Cowart, the Bills should be aiming for real victories at this time next year, instead of consolation prizes.
But if the Bills simply draft a rookie quarterback and go into next season with Van Pelt as the starter and Travis Brown as No. 2, they're resigning themselves to, at best, a four- or five-win season. Given the half-empty state of Ralph Wilson Stadium for Buffalo's final two home games, that's not going to cut it.
Who might be available as a reasonably priced free agent or through a draft-choice trade? With Tom Brady entrenched in New England, Drew Bledsoe will be on the market. But Buffalo has nowhere near the cap room that would be required, even if he was the right fit.
The realistic list starts with Trent Dilfer. In Tampa Bay, Baltimore and now Seattle, he's never been quite good enough for his coaches, but he's big enough (6-foot-4, 229 pounds) to take more punishment than Johnson and has a better arm than Van Pelt. His judgment, long the source of aggravation to Buccaneers fans, improved with experience -- he hasn't thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes since 1996, his second year as a starter.
Since Seattle coach Paul Holmgren remains inexplicably enamored with Matt Hasselbeck, Dilfer will likely be available when free-agency season opens.
The Bears reached the playoffs with Jim Miller at quarterback, but not because of him. Unless Miller takes Chicago deep into the playoffs, the Bears are likely to upgrade -- quite possibly to Bledsoe.
Like Dilfer, Miller doesn't make a lot of big plays, but he doesn't give up many, either. And if the Bears let him go as an unrestricted free agent, he doesn't figure to cause a bidding war.
Then there's Jeff Blake, who put up solid numbers in 1999 with Cincinnati and last year with New Orleans before getting hurt. Aaron Brooks took over, making Blake an expensive backup. He's more mobile than Dilfer and also has an arm capable of throwing through the late-season winds in Orchard Park, but any deal would require a restructuring of the contract he signed with New Orleans before last season.
Gus Frerotte is another former starter languishing as a backup. After getting dumped by Washington and Detroit, he's been efficient in limited duty with Denver the past two seasons. Dilfer, Blake, Miller and Frerotte will all be 30 or 31 when next season opens, meaning each should be entering their peak years. None are Hall-of-Famers, but each has had a measure of success when put in the right setting.
Last offseason, overpaying for quarterbacks was all the rage. Baltimore rewarded Dilfer for a Super Bowl trophy by dumping him in favor of Elvis Grbac. Kansas City replaced Grbac with Trent Green. Tampa Bay showered Brad Johnson in cash.
None of those purchases paid off in wins for the Ravens, Chiefs or Bucs. The Bills already learned their lesson about paying retail with Rob Johnson.
Four years of premium-priced quarterbacks added up to zero playoff wins for Buffalo. With a crowded wholesale market this offseason, it's time for the Bills to do a little bargain hunting.