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Despite the often hysterical reporting by daily newspapers in Buffalo and Niagara Falls, three things now appear certain in connection with the establishment of three Seneca Indian casinos in Western New York.
First, the federal government is prepared to do everything in its power to expedite and facilitate the deal.
Second, the Senecas themselves are overwhelmingly in favor of entering into an agreement with the state, and a tribal referendum will be held no later than Nov. 16.
And finally, a state Supreme Court decision handed down last Friday in connection with an Indian casino near Syracuse will have absolutely no impact on the process here.
"To read the newspapers, it's like they're looking for any possible way to screw this up," a top gaming source told the Reporter. "They won't come out and say it, but they obviously have an agenda."
Sources in Albany this week confirmed reports that Gov. George Pataki has been assured by President George Bush that the Seneca compact will sail through the federal approval process. Bush reportedly told Pataki that Interior Secretary Gail Norton would do everything in her power to expedite the compact through the Bureau of Indian Affairs.
Bush, a close friend of Pataki's, supported the proposal prior to the Sept. 11 terrorist attack on New York City as a means to bolster the governor's chances of re-election in 2002.
But in the wake of the disaster, the importance of the Seneca compact has increased dramatically, sources said.
"The casino bill provides for $200 million in spending on economic development, including the creation of a 'Liberty Zone' to aid in the rebuilding of lower Manhattan through tax breaks and other incentives," said one Albany insider. "This has become the equivalent of an emergency wartime measure."
As for the Seneca Nation, a straw poll conducted on the Cattaraugus reservation less than 10 days ago shows the tribe overwhelmingly in favor of the deal. Additionally, near-unanimous support was shown for the selection of a developer based in Western New York, as opposed to one of the many gaming conglomerates that have shown up since Pataki reached an agreement with tribal leaders in June.
Sources on the reservation told the Reporter that a referendum will be held before Nov. 16, both on the proposal itself and on the developer preferred by the tribe to actually build the casinos.
No one closely involved with the process considers the Oct. 26 decision by state Supreme Court Justice James McCarthy -- allowing a group formerly funded by Donald Trump to sue the state in connection with the Oneida Nation's Turning Stone casino -- to have any impact in the ongoing process with the Senecas.
The narrow ruling gives Upstate Citizens for Equality (UCE) standing to sue the state on the grounds that the 1993 Oneida compact was never approved by the state Legislature. In the case of the Seneca compact, both the state Senate and Assembly have overwhelmingly approved the measure, rendering the UCE objections moot, sources said.
The Niagara Falls casino is expected to open at the Niagara Falls Convention and Civic Center no later than next summer. The facility will feature 3,500 slot machines along with 150 so-called "green tables" featuring blackjack, roulette, craps and other more traditional games.
While final financial details have not yet been worked out, the expected take for the city will amount to 25 percent of the state's 25 percent take from the slot machine revenue, or approximately 6.25 percent of the total.
Gaming experts estimate that a minimum of $7 million a year will be realized by the city, with additional revenue expected from increased bed tax collections, new development downtown and 2,500 new jobs.
A permanent casino will be built at a later date on the old Splash Park property, state officials said.