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BILLS FACE ANOTHER LONG SUNDAY AFTERNOON

By David Staba

It was just one sentence, buried in Gregg Williams' weekly Wednesday discussion of the state of the Buffalo Bills, but it gave a hint that he might just be learning what head coaching is all about.

"I think we have to identify what we have strengths at doing and capitalize on those," Williams said.

Whoa.

Through the spring and summer, and into the fall, Williams showed little inclination to alter the all-important systems he and his coordinators installed on offense and defense.

The playbooks for the West Coast offense Mike Sheppard brought from Seattle and the modified 46 defense Williams ran at Tennesse and handed over to Jerry Gray were sacred documents. Players who didn't fit the blueprint, like John Holecek and Henry Jones, were banished. Blasphemers who suggested the Bills might not quite fit Williams' plans were clearly ignorant of his past successes with the Titans.

But after two offseason minicamps, six weeks of training camp and a month of game-week preparation, the Bills still looked like they were handed their scripts about an hour before last week's game against Pittsburgh.

Buffalo's offense remained in late-July mode, failing for the second straight home game to score a single touchdown. The Bills' run defense was gutted a week after their Peyton Manning gutted their secondary.

Buffalo finished Week 3 ranked 26th in total offense, 29th in total defense. The Bills are 30th in sacks allowed per pass, ranking ahead of only Seattle. They've given up more yards per play than any team in the NFL. Only Arizona and Washington, two other hapless, winless outfits, have surrendered more first downs.

Sure, statistics sometimes lie. But scoreboards don't. This is the ninth season in 42 that Buffalo has started 0-3. But 1968 was the only other season in which those losses were each by 10 points or more. And only the 1971 edition opened by losing three games by a wider aggregate margin.

If this year's model is to avoid similar futility, something's got to give. Meaningful in-season trades are a past relic in the NFL and there's not much Buffalo can do on the waiver wire at this point in the season. But something clearly has to change.

If Williams is serious about molding Buffalo's game plan around the players he has, rather than the players he'd like to have, that's a good sign. With the Bills floundering in all phases of the game, save punting, the question becomes: What strengths are there to capitalize on?

Fortunately for Buffalo, the New York Jets are also struggling to fit into new offensive and defensive schemes.

They won a dreary game on the road in New England (does Foxboro host any other kind?), but were beaten soundly twice at home. On Monday night, San Francisco shredded their run defense, always a strong point of Ted Cottrell's units in Buffalo, for 233 yards. At times, Vinny Testaverde's attempts to run the West Coast system have made Rob Johnson look downright comfortable.

As erratic as the Jets have been, they come into Orchard Park as 4 1/2-point favorites. And New York has actually won a game and managed to make their loss to San Francisco cosmetically close.

If Williams is serious about adjusting systems to fit talent, things will start to improve for Buffalo. But it won't show up on the scoreboard just yet.

Jets, 20-10.

Tennessee at Baltimore (-3 1/2): The 0-2 Titans are desperate for a win, but you need more than that against the Ravens, particularly in Baltimore. Ravens, 9-6.

Washington at N.Y. Giants (-14): If you think the Bills are bad ... Giants, 36-3.

Arizona at Philadelphia (-14 1/2): See above. Eagles, 37-6.

San Diego (-3) at Cleveland: This is the best test for the San Diego Fluties so far, but still a passable one. Chargers, 20-15.

Chicago at Atlanta (-3 1/2): Maurice Smith stepped in for Jamal Anderson last week and had a huge game. That's more than enough against the Bears. Falcons, 24-16.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-5): Even at 2-1, no one takes the Bengals seriously. Maybe the Steelers should. Bengals, 17-14.

Minnesota at New Orleans (-3 1/2): The Saints' defense revolves around its pass rush, a factor to which Daunte Culpepper is nearly immune. Vikings, 28-23.

New England at Miami (-9 1/2): Patriots quarterback Tom Brady did a nice job filling in for Drew Bledsoe last week, but he's no Kurt Warner. Dolphins, 20-16.

Kansas City at Denver (-10): The spread is too big for this rivalry, especially with the Chiefs' offense coming around. Broncos, 30-24.

Jacksonville (-3 1/2) at Seattle: Didn't Mike Holmgren used to be a genius? Jaguars, 29-13.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay (-2 1/2): The Packers opened with three softies. You can call Tampa Bay a lot of things -- erratic, overrated, unpredictable -- but soft isn't one of them. Bucs, 16-13.

Dallas at Oakland (-18): Under most circumstances, you never, ever pick an 18-point favorite in an NFL game. But against the Cowboys, the spread might not be big enough. Raiders, 47-11.

Carolina at San Francisco (-7): Garrison Hearst is returning to form, which gives the Panthers too much to defend against. 49ers, 31-21.

St. Louis (-13) at Detroit: Going with four double-digit favorites in one week goes against every rule of NFL prognostication. But these are the Rams on artificial turf we're talking about. Rams, 37-20.

(Last week: 8-6 overall, 7-7 against the spread; Season: 29-14 straight up, 22-19-2 against the spread).


David Staba is the sports editor of the Niagara Falls Reporter and the editor of the BuffaloPOST. He welcomes email at editor@buffalopost.com.