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PATRIOTS POISED TO EXPLOIT BUFFALO'S PROBLEMS

By David Staba

Things couldn't have changed much more over the past year for the Buffalo Bills or the New England Patriots.

Almost a year to the day after their last visit to Orchard Park, the Patriots come into Sunday's renewal of a rivalry that dates to 1960 as one of the National Football League's hottest teams.

The Bills, meanwhile, are just trying to salvage something, anything from one of the worst seasons in franchise history (and if you count last week's crawl-back against equally pitiful Carolina as 'something,' may you find a "Best of Joe Dufek" videotape under your tree).

Last year, Buffalo hosted New England just one week removed from playoff contention, while the Patriots were hoping to tack their fifth win on to a season nearly as dreadful as this one has turned out for the Bills.

That game turned into the Snow Globe Bowl, a 13-10 New England win in overtime played under conditions better suited for an Antarctic expedition.

Coming into this year, few predicted the speed and angle of Buffalo's demise. Even fewer expected New England to compete for anything higher than fourth place in the AFC East.

And that was before Drew Bledsoe got hurt.

Since their franchise quarterback went down in Week 2, the Patriots won eight times in 11 games behind veritable rookie Tom Brady, who has managed to keep a healthy (or at least as healthy as one can be less than three months after sustaining organ damage) Bledsoe on the bench.

The Patriots don't offer much marquee value anywhere else, either. Former Bills bench fixture Antowain Smith surfaced after getting exiled by former offensive coordinator Joe Pendry and banished by Buffalo's new management team to supply a steady ground game. Smith has run for 825 yards and 10 touchdowns, putting him on pace for the second 1,000-yard season of his career.

Despite his success, Smith denies any extra motivation when facing the Bills (though he ran very hard in picking up 100 yards and two touchdowns when the teams met in Foxboro a month ago).

Of course, it's easier to be diplomatic when your new team wins seven more games than your old one.

With mercurial wide receiver Terry Glenn out for most of the year with suspensions and injury, Troy Brown has turned in a second straight quietly brilliant campaign.

But while the Brady-Bledsoe saga occupies the scant space afforded the Patriots by the national media, its New England's defense that provided the inside track to a playoff spot.The Patriots haven't overwhelmed anyone, allowing at least 10 points in every game. But they're steady, giving up more than 17 in just one of their wins.

Given New England coach Bill Belichick's famed ability to devise schemes that frustrate even the best quarterbacks, Alex Van Pelt and Buffalo's (relatively) improved offensive line figure to face a steady diet of tight man-to-man and an array of blitzes.

Patriots offensive coordinator Charlie Weis has been equally innovative, keeping Brady in safe situations while avoiding predictability.

Given the injuries to Buffalo defensive tackles Pat Williams and Shawn Price, Weis won't need to be too tricky Sunday. The Panthers were too feeble to exploit the Bills' weaknesses up the middle. Smith and the Patriots, a four-point favorite, won't be.

Patriots, 24-13.

Arizona at N.Y. Giants (-5): New York's collapse against Dallas makes it very, very tough to pick the Giants. Even over Arizona. Cardinals, 23-20.

Oakland (-4) at San Diego: Chargers coach Mike Riley insists he's staying with Doug Flutie for the rest of the year, even after six straight losses and elimination from the playoff race. The big question -- why? Raiders, 34-13.

Denver at Kansas City (-2 1/2): Even with Gus Frerotte in for the concussed Brian Griese, the Broncos have enough to stay in the playoff race for at least another week. Broncos, 27-23.

Atlanta at Indianapolis (-3 1/2): Funny, but nobody's calling Bill Polian a genius these days. His annual neglect of Indy's defense finally caught up with the Colts this year. And judging from his bizarre decision to duke it out with comedian/commentator Jay Mohr over Edgerrin James knee injury this week, the former Bills boss has worn out his welcome. Again. Falcons, 13-10.

Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets (-9): With the Jets' offense stalled, they don't rate a nine-point spot on anyone. Jets, 18-15.

Jacksonville at Cleveland (-2 1/2): The Browns stay in the postseason chase for at least one more week. Browns, 20-14.

Minnesota (-3) at Detroit: After so many close losses, the Lions are due for a blowout. Vikings, 44-23.

Philadelphia (-3) at Washington: Philly wraps up the NFC East. Eagles, 26-13.

Tampa Bay at Chicago (-3): The Bears are learning that it helps to have at least a little bit of offense. Bucs, 18-16.

Miami at San Francisco (-4): The Dolphins played a nearly perfect game last week. They won't do it again, particularly on the road. 49ers, 30-23.

Green Bay (-2 1/2) at Tennessee: The last time the Packers were playing this well, they wound up in the Super Bowl. Packers, 26-17.

Dallas at Seattle (-5 1/2): Benching Shaun Alexander for Ricky Watters might haunt Seattle eventually, but not this week. Seahawks, 17-10.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-3): Kris Brown won't miss four field goals again. Steelers, 9-6.

St. Louis (-6) at New Orleans: The Saints need it worse, and nobody plays the Rams tougher. Saints, 34-31.

(Last week: 11-4 overall, 8-7 against the spread. Season: 114-68 overall, 86-90-4 against the spread).


David Staba is the sports editor of the Niagara Falls Reporter and the editor of the BuffaloPOST. He welcomes email at editor@buffalopost.com.