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LITTLE SUSPENSE FOR BILLS, EVEN AGAINST PATHETIC PANTHERS

By David Staba

Predicting the outcome of Buffalo Bills games has gotten remarkably easy.

It's no longer a question of if they'll lose, but how and by how much.

Some optimists point to Sunday's visit by the almost-equally dismal Carolina Panthers as Buffalo's chance to avoid the third one-win season in franchise history, since Carolina hasn't won since a Week 1 upset of Minnesota.

But not all single-win records were created equal. Of Carolina's 11 losses, seven were by eight points or fewer. Five came by the margin of a field goal or less, including a pair of overtime defeats.

Buffalo has come within three points of victory just twice, with two other losses by a touchdown or less. More than half the Bills' 10 losses, six, were by double-digit margins.

Recent history also bodes well for the Panthers. They led New Orleans into the final moments last week, only to blow a lead in the final five minutes for the fifth time this year. That night, Buffalo turned in a thoroughly hapless performance in San Francisco, failing miserably in every phase of the game.

Neither team has playoff-caliber talent. The difference in their styles of futility comes down to coaching. George Seifert's staff in Carolina kept the Panthers competitive despite the series of close losses. Gregg Williams' Bills reacted to their disastrous collapse two weeks ago against Miami by losing whatever confidence they had left.

Carolina quarterback Chris Weinke has played like a rookie despite his advanced age, but Buffalo's defense is ill-prepared to take advantage -- the Bills have forced just 10 turnovers all season, a big part of their league-worst minus-17 giveaway/takeaway ratio.

That facet has been one of the Panthers' only strengths, as they rank last league-wide in both total offense and total defense. Carolina is at plus-2, largely due to 19 interceptions by the Panthers' defense. That can't be good news for Alex Van Pelt, whose sudden propensity to throw into multiple coverages led to four interceptions against the 49ers. Cornerback Doug Evans' eight picks tie him for the league lead.

Carolina's kickers help keep the Panthers close. Punter Todd Sauerbrun leads the league, while kicker John Kasay hasn't missed from inside 50 yards all season. Bills punter Brian Moorman has generally been solid, but new kicker Shayne Graham's pitiful miss on his only field-goal attempt last week didn't make anyone forget Jake Arians (if anyone remembered him to begin with).

Bills running back Travis Henry would figure to have a fast track against the National Football League's worst run defense, but that would require Buffalo's line to turn in a cohesive performance -- far from a given.

The Panthers haven't had much luck on the ground, either, with former Steeler Richard Huntley failing to exceed 63 yards in any game. But that could change this week, with a season-ending injury to starting defensive tackle Shawn Price further depleting a unit that's yielded six individual 100-yard games, as well as permitted two backs to exceed 90 yards and another more than 80.

Due largely to Carolina's lengthy injury list, the oddsmakers rate Buffalo as a 3 1/2-point favorites, the only time they've been so honored this year. They're being far too generous.

Panthers, 26-18.

San Francisco at St. Louis (-7 1/2): The 49ers keep it close, but St. Louis' class prevails. Rams, 30-27.

Tennessee at Minnesota (even): The Titans showed they have some life, or at least pride, left last week. The Vikings are a mess. Titans, 23-20.

Chicago at Green Bay (-5 1/2): Like San Francisco, the Bears are hugely improved. But not quite ready to knock off the big boys on the road. Packers, 27-17.

Cleveland at New England (-5): Cleveland snapped back to reality against Tennessee, and get another taste this week. Patriots, 24-13.

Detroit at Tampa Bay (-9): Time for Tampa Bay's annual late-season run. Bucs, 26-3. Jacksonville at Cincinnati (-1 1/2): Nice to have the old Bengals back after that hint of mediocrity early in the year. Jaguars, 28-13.

New Orleans (-3) at Atlanta: If Chris Chandler were healthy, the Falcons would have a shot. He's not, so they don't. Saints, 34-16.

N.Y. Giants (-3 1/2) at Dallas: Quincy Carter, meet Michael Strahan. Giants, 19-0.

San Diego at Philadelphia (-7): The Flutiephiles have been remarkably quiet during San Diego's six-game losing streak. Must be the rest of the Chargers aren't trying. Eagles, 30-14.

Washington at Arizona (even): The Redskins' complete lack of offense finally caught up with them last week. Hard to believe, but the winner here is at .500 and in possession of playoff hopes. Cardinals, 21-20.

Kansas City at Oakland (-9): The Raiders lapsed into inconsistency the last few weeks. Notre Dame-related speculation about head coach Jon Gruden won't help, but Oakland slips by the improving Chiefs. Raiders, 28-26.

N.Y. Jets at Pittsburgh (-3 1/2): With the Jets staggered by last week's come-from-ahead loss to New England, Pittsburgh keeps rolling. Steelers, 17-13.

Seattle at Denver (-6): The Broncos win, but not by a touchdown. Broncos, 30-27.

Indianapolis at Miami (-4 1/2): The Dolphins' 8-3 mark isn't nearly as convincing as it sounds, but the Colts are finished. Dolphins, 20-13.

(Last week: 11-4 overall, 8-6-1 against the spread. Season: 103-64 overall, 78-83-4 against the spread.)


David Staba is the sports editor of the Niagara Falls Reporter and the editor of the BuffaloPOST. He welcomes email at editor@buffalopost.com.