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Even when the San Francisco 49ers were struggling to escape the salary-cap jail in which the Buffalo Bills landed last spring, their offense could cause problems for anybody.
But San Francisco is 8-2 and on top of the NFC West two years after crashing to 4-12 in 1999 because the 49ers defense is finally catching up. That can only be bad news for the hapless Buffalo Bills, who head into Sunday night's nationally televised game still reeling from their collapse last week against Miami.
None of San Francisco's first seven wins were by more than a 10-point margin, with five coming by six or less -- three in overtime. But last week, playing on the road, the 49ers harassed Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning into throwing four interceptions. San Francisco's 40-21 win sent Colts coach Jim Mora into one of his post-game tirades and likely ended Indy's realistic playoff hopes.
Buffalo, of course, said goodbye to such hopes well before Halloween. While plenty of numbers hint at reasons for the Bills' 1-9 record, the most significant is minus-12. That's Buffalo's giveaway/takeaway ratio, and it ties the Bills with Indy, Miami and Minnesota at the bottom of the National Football League.
The Colts, Dolphins and Vikings have shown enough strengths to remain at some level of contention for most of the year (though the Colts and Vikings have both fallen to 4-6). The Bills simply haven't been able to overcome their mistakes.
And that's one area in which Buffalo hasn't improved since Alex Van Pelt took over at quarterback. In Van Pelt's two starts, he's thrown just one interception, but the Bills have given away four fumbles. The defense, meanwhile, produced but a single turnover.
That kind of math doesn't work against anybody, and it certainly won't against San Francisco. After missing the playoffs the last two years while rebuilding under coach Steve Mariucci, the 49ers have not only established themselves as a playoff-caliber team, but a legitimate threat to knock off St. Louis in the NFC West.
As usual, the strength of San Francisco's offense is its balance. Jeff Garcia comes in as the NFC's top-ranked passer, with 22 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions. Garrison Hearst's remarkable comeback from a foot injury that's often career-ending has produced 776 rushing yards (and a 5.3 average), as well as 31 catches.
With Terrell Owens and J.J. Stokes (who has woken from a season-long slump) stretching defenses and Hearst hammering them underneath, San Francisco has produced the third-most yards in the league, behind only St. Louis and the Colts.
The 49ers defense isn't ranked as highly, coming in at 24th overall, but rates 11th against the run.
That matchup will be key for Buffalo. The Bills' best hope lies with a ball-control offense that helps limit Garcia's opportunities, so they need Travis Henry to turn in another big game.
That won't be enough on its own, though. After watching Peerless Price's big day two weeks ago against Seattle and Eric Moulds' two-touchdown performance against Miami last Sunday, the 49ers figure to double both wideouts. That will force Van Pelt to methodically work the ball down the field. To do that, Buffalo has to play almost perfectly on offense.
And that's something the Bills, a nine-point underdog, haven't come close to doing all year.
49ers, 33-23.
Philadelphia (-3) at Kansas City: Donovan McNabb has been having problems against defenses that know him well. The Chiefs don't. Eagles, 23-18.
Denver at Miami (-3): The Broncos won't just give Miami the game, a la the Bills, but at home, the Dolphins don't usually need much charity. Dolphins, 21-16.
Indianapolis at Baltimore (-7): Once again, the Colts are discovering that you don't go very far without a defense. You'd think they would have figured that out by now. Ravens, 26-17.
Carolina at New Orleans (-10): The Saints don't warrant a double-digit spread until they can look impressive against somebody besides the Rams. Saints, 27-23.
Minnesota at Pittsburgh (-7): The Steelers could all but end Minnesota's playoff hopes. Judging from their performance at home on Sunday night against Chicago, the Vikings don't much care. Steelers, 27-14.
New England at N.Y. Jets (-3): Tom Brady keeps looking better and better, but that won't be enough againt the Jets on the road. Jets, 28-20.
St. Louis (-8) at Atlanta: The Rams don't stink it up two weeks in a row. Rams, 37-13.
Tampa Bay (-6) at Cincinnati: The Bengals early momentum is long gone, but Tampa Bay usually struggles north of the Florida border in December. Bucs, 19-17.
Tennessee at Cleveland (-1): Even at their best, the Titans treated their passing game as an annoyance. Now Eddie George is averaging 2.8 yards per carry. Tough to win that way. Browns, 19-17.
Detroit at Chicago (-7 1/2): After snuffing the Vikings in Minneapolis, its tough to argue that the Bears aren't for real. Bears, 24-10.
San Diego at Seattle (-3): The Chargers, on the other hand ... Seahawks, 30-20.
Arizona at Oakland (-13): Rich Gannon should have a pretty easy time finding Jerry Rice and Tim Brown against the league's second-worst defense. Raiders, 40-22.
Dallas at Washington (-8 1/2): Last time around, these were two of the worst teams in the NFL. One of them still is. Redskins, 20-7.
Green Bay (-3) at Jacksonville: Tom Coughlin is the only coach the Jaguars have ever had. At least for another six weeks. Packers, 34-24.
(Last week: 7-6 overall, 6-5-2 against the spread. Season: 92-60 overall, 70-77-3 against the spread).