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Last time the Miami Dolphins came to Orchard Park, it marked the end of the Buffalo Bills as we knew them.
At 7-5, the Bills were coming off their body-bag game in Tampa, when Sam Cowart, Sam Rogers and Keion Carpenter were lost for the season -- all in the second quarter. But even Buffalo's second-half collapse against the Bucs didn't portend what happened back in Western New York a week later.
After all, Miami simply didn't, couldn't, wouldn't win at Ralph Wilson Stadium in December. And even without more than a third of the starting defense (Antoine Winfield had gone down a week before the Tampa trio), the defense would just plug in four new guys. The offense, having been carried for the better part of the previous two years, would finally do some heavy lifting. That's the way things had gone in this rivalry for nearly 15 years -- the Dolphins might steal an early-season game here and there, but the Bills always won when it counted most. Especially at home.
Until Dec. 3, 2000. The Dolphins didn't just beat Buffalo. They embarrassed the Bills in every phase of the game, treating a team that been to the playoffs 10 of the previous 12 seasons like an expansion loser. After years of rallying under adversity, Buffalo finally suffocated.
The Bills, a 5-point underdog, have won just twice since, once in last year's meaningless finale. There's not much reason to think things will go much differently Sunday.
Miami won't adopt the mysteriously passive defense Seattle employed last week. The Dolphins' pass rush humiliated Buffalo's offensive line twice last year, with defensive end Jason Taylor accounting for 5 1/2 sacks in two games all by himself.
It will be interesting to see just how cohesive Buffalo's offense looks under Alex Van Pelt if (make that when) the Dolphins crowd the line and dare the Bills to throw. Between Miami's rush and pressure man-to-man schemes, Van Pelt won't have the sort of cushion that helped him pile up 316 yards passing against the Seahawks.
With behemoth defensive tackle Daryl Gardener and cornerback Sam Madison out, there are weaknesses for the Bills to exploit. But Buffalo hasn't been able to do that all season. The offensive line had a decent showing against Seattle's four-man rushes, but every Seahawks blitz resulted in a sack or play-disrupting pressure. It's safe to guess that the Dolphins have watched the films.
Miami's offense comes off a dismal performance in which Fiedler surrendered two touchdown turnovers in the Dolphins' 24-0 home loss to the New York Jets. Even though Lamar Smith has averaged just 2.3 yards per carry over the last five weeks, Buffalo still hasn't stopped a decent back this year. That matchup will give Fiedler the ability to work his play-action game, the foundation of Miami's passing offense.
Even after the loss to New York, the Dolphins are 6-3 and a half-game out of the AFC East lead. The 1-8 Bills are playing for dignity and jobs. This is the kind of game good teams win.
And bad ones lose.
Dolphins, 26-6.
Baltimore (-3) at Jacksonville: The Jaguars don't run especially well and Mark Brunell may miss the game. Tough way to beat Baltimore. Ravens, 16-3.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee (-2): The Steelers punished the Titans 34-7 on Oct. 29. They can all but finish them on Sunday. Steelers, 17-7.
San Francisco at Indianapolis (-3): Jim Mora has plenty of reason to worry about his job. 49ers, 29-23.
Seattle at Kansas City (-1 1/2): Once invincible at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs haven't won a game there this year. Seahawks, 23-20.
Washington at Philadelphia (-8): The Redskins have won four straight after starting 0-5. Must be Bruce Smith's leadership. Eagles, 27-16.
Atlanta (-3) at Carolina: The Falcons shouldn't be 5-4 with barely more talent than the 1-9 Panthers. But they are. Falcons, 19-10.
Cincinnati at Cleveland (-6): After completing a sweep of Baltimore, Cleveland fans can start talking, or at least thinking seriously, about the playoffs. Browns, 28-13.
New Orlenas (pick 'em) at New England: Drew Bledsoe will start looking pretty good around halftime. Saints, 31-12.
Arizona at San Diego (-7): A loss here, and San Diego's 5-2 start officially becomes a mirage. Chargers, 30-28.
Oakland (-2) at N.Y. Giants: No late-season run by the Giants this year. Raiders, 30-20.
Chicago at Minnesota (-3): Minnesota at home in prime time is as close to a lock as you'll find. Vikings, 34-23.
Tampa Bay at St. Louis (-10): Unless it's the Rams at home in prime time. Rams, 37-22.
(Last week: 9-6 overall, 7-8 against the spread. Season: 85-54 overall, 64-72-1 against the spread).