The 2010 edition of the Belmont Stakes was doomed from the start. After Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver mailed in a dud at the Preakness, and the winner, Lookin At Lucky, passed on the final leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont was left with the remnants of a hapless crop of 3-year-olds.
Regardless, the real story is that the state of New York was a nose away from losing Thoroughbred racing for the summer of 2010 and beyond. Forget the metro tracks, Aqueduct and Belmont, this meant that the Saratoga meeting, the most prestigious in the country, was in jeopardy.
The problems began a decade ago and came to a boil recently when the New York Racing Association (NYRA) announced that it was $20 million in the red and that after the running of the Belmont Stakes they were considering shutting their doors. The state panicked and the Luv Guv Davy Paterson pushed through legislation to secure a loan to save not only the NYRA's, but also Albany's hindquarters.
Don't jump to conclusions and blame the NYRA, though. To be fair, Wharton could offer 12 credits on a study of their incompetence, but their issues are driven more by the dullards in charge than by any specific dubious dealings. I realize it's New York, and that means that even the fish in Skaneateles Lake are on the take, but the NYRA isn't a mortgage lender in the pocket of Chris Dodd and Barney Frank expecting bailouts to compensate for their greed and incompetence.
Are they (the NYRA) dumb? Indeed. Are they visionaries? They could elect Earl Grey as CEO and still not read the tea leaves. But are they to blame? No, Albany is to blame.
A decade ago, the state legislature approved the operation of 4,500 video slots at Aqueduct that would fund NYRA forever. These "racinos" are the new darling of the sport and to me are a desperate act of the misguided. Regardless, the slots RFP has been mired in mismanagement and corruption for years, and all this time NYRA was standing by, waiting patiently for their piece of the pie.
Feeling the heat, Albany struck a deal in 2008, and the NYRA was promised operating funds to the tune of $3 million a month if video slots weren't up and running at Aqueduct by April 2009. In return, the state would hold title to the land under the Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga race tracks, valued at a cool $1 billion, in return for their generosity.
But it wasn't enough for the state legislature to kick NYRA in the knees and hold them hostage and use their own property as ransom. Enter the disgraceful and ever-corrupt New York City Off Track Betting (OTB), who went belly-up a few years back and left NYRA holding the bag on more than $17 million in receivables. Do the math and you can see who is at fault here.
Fortunately, Paterson and the sorry lot of legislators in Albany knew enough not to screw with the summer Saratoga meeting. The bombs were already being tossed south on I-87 and they wanted no part of the bluebloods getting their $400 trousers in a bunch. But let's face it, their solution is typical of the government: Sure, they fix a pot hole once in a while, but the brigade of public works employees and the convoy of 80-ton diesels used in the solution actually does more damage to the infrastructure than the intended repair. I swear the idiots who comprise what's known as state leadership could write a book titled "Band-Aids Instead of Tourniquets."
Here's where the NYRA can learn something from, dare I say, New Jersey. In a desperate attempt to outshine their brothers to the north, and knowing that Garden State racing was a dung-pile, New Jersey un-gelded themselves and tried something bold.
For decades, Monmouth Park has been the stepchild of East Coast racing, and aside from Haskell Day, the racing has forever been the pits. Their annual meeting yielded a daily nine race card, crappy horses, paltry purses and fairly chalky payouts. No wonder things were bleak on the Jersey shore.
An aside: Legend has it that two enterprising kids from Sea Bright lured the boozers from the bar Donavan's Reef and took wagers on crab races, and these two were taking more action than the mutuel windows at the track.
As bad as it was, for some insane reason the lords of racing tossed Jersey a bone and granted Monmouth the 2007 Breeder's Cup. When it was announced, my fellow racing fans were stunned and thought, "What's next for the BC? Thistledown? Kamloops? Fort Erie?"
But to their credit, the Garden Staters went to work and built a facility that was too worthy for what they really were: a third-rate venue. Talk about lipstick on a pig; hell, they dressed her in a garter belt and high heels. As a result of the facelift, it was a nice place, a very nice place, yet still only 8,000 visited daily.
So they did the unthinkable: Using the less-is-more theory, they reduced the number of racing days to three times a week and increased the number of daily races to 12. After the redistribution of the normal five-day kitty, by simply adding a little to the pot, they had a million-dollar-a-day card.
What did this do? It attracted top riders like John Velazquez and Garrett Gomez, and suddenly the shed row had shingles that read Lukas and Pletcher. Though the big boys were now in the game, you needn't shed a tear for the small-time trainers; if they are sharp, they will clean house. If Nick Zito risks one of his costly steeds to win the top purse (around $30,000) for a $10,000-claiming race, the small-timer can snag a damn fine horse for his barn at 20 cents on the dollar. This is genius, folks: Lure the big boys with dough and the small-timers with hopes of giving the high hard one to the big barns.
The other thing they have done for the small-timer is to include two New Jersey-bred races a day. To the average fan, this seems like a big whatever, but with $80,000 purses for a state-bred race they have created a huge demand for the Snooki-breds. The number of foals in New Jersey has declined about 30 percent in the last decade, and last year you could have bought one for next to nothing, but now you couldn't buy one if your name was Gates.
There are flaws in the New Jersey plan. For example, they could have had guts and made Monmouth a five-year endeavor, but they are treating it like a one-year experiment. This has the breeders and small-timers apprehensive, but unlike New York, at least they are doing something. Early indications are that the handle and attendance are up, and this before the throng of vacationers venture to the shore.
NYRA has only three assets, the annual running of the Belmont Stakes, the Saratoga meeting and real estate. And what did they do? They gave away the most valuable commodity, the real estate, on a promise from Albany. I'd sooner trust the Mexican government. But say they left Saratoga alone and followed Monmouth's plan, reducing the number of races at Aqueduct and Belmont. Who needs six days of racing in New York City? No one I know. If I were king of NYRA, I'd keep a keen eye on what happens in Jersey.
Even though we dodged a bullet and the big race on Saturday will not be the last, we have a race to handicap, so let's look at the field and see if we can make some noise of our own.
Drosselmeyer has become the darling of the turf writers in the last few weeks. He's a son of Distorted Humor, thus can get the mile and a half. He's conditioned by the great Bill Mott, and the colt does have the resume to move forward. His second in the Dwyer and his running style are enough to put him on the short list of maybes. But his figs don't pop off the page. Do I want Mott to win a biggie? Always. Do I think this is the horse? Not sure.
Bobby Baffert liked what he saw in the Lone Star Derby and tossed his hat into the ring with Game on Dude. Baffert is up to something, and as always, I hope I have the guts to scratch a line through this one, but if he gets fat odds, I might bite on the Baffert factor alone.
Uptowncharlybrown will replace Paddy O'Prado as the name bet for this race. Linda White took charge of the horse in early April, just before the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, when the colt's conditioner, Alan Seewald, unexpectedly died. This would be a great story, but UCB's papa, Limehouse, tends to sire sprinters, and the form on this one punctuates that trait. If you want good karma, pass on this one, and instead head to Mother of Sorrows and toss a few quid in the collection basket.
Dave in Dixie, a lightly raced colt from the John Sadler barn, has been putting in honest works out West since his stinker in Chicago at the Illinois Derby. Note that he's lost every race since his maiden bow last summer at Del Mar. Passing.
Dicky Dutrow will start Spangled Star. The Spangman, another from Distorted Humor, certainly has the distance pedigree to do well here. Dutrow knows this circuit as well as anyone and also knows he's not facing anything scary. But there is nothing on form to indicate that this guy belongs in a Grade I at Elmont.
Stay Put is a weird one. The son of Broken Vow is a closer that was bred to run from Gotham to Bangor. His trainer, Steve Margolis, hangs his shingle on Kentucky barns, but is a native New Yorker who would love this race on his bedpost. Based on his breeding lines and running style, this colt intrigues me and will warrant a win bet at odds over 20-1.
Always a fixture in New York, Nick Zito will saddle two colts on Saturday, Fly Down and Ice Box. Fly Down is an interesting colt, as he exits a commendable win effort at the Dwyer and will be the "other" Zito, as the chalk will be all over Ice Box. Fly Down's mid-pack, closing run style fits the bill. His papa is Mineshaft, and Mineshaft's papa was A.P. Indy, and you know that the Indy's progeny can run all day. Here's the downside: He is very lightly raced, and that is anti-winner profile here, but I'm playing him anyway.
After a place finish in the Derby, Ice Box will be the deserved chalk of the race. He closed with a purpose in Louisville and caught several average horses who were three strides from dead. Keep in perspective, though, that the Belmont Stakes is not typically won by a closer. This marathon is dominated by stalking horses that can run three to four lengths off the lead and have the stamina to make their move around the turn with a strong finish.
Ice Box is a son of Pulpit. His granddaddy is A.P. Indy, and as the Mills Brothers sang in "Opus One," "Repeat, repeat." Thus, like his stable-mate, he has a fitting pedigree. He is well rested with only two efforts since late March, which is another anti-profile for a Belmont winner. In those races, he ran two big figs, and not many horses can run three in a row. Well, the real good ones can, but I'm not sure he's a real good one. My guess is that he'll go off at 5/2, and that's a huge overlay, so your only hope is to cover him in the gimmicks and pray for bombs underneath.
The other Triple Crown refugees are First Dude, Make Music For Me and Stately Victor.
I tossed a chunk of money on First Dude to win the Preakness, and he gave me quite the thrill. Nothing against him, but he is very anti-profile for the Belmont. Sure, he's another of the A.P. Indy line, but unlike his sibs, he's a speedster, and my guess is that he'll be cooked by the time he hits the massive backstretch. Big Lebowski Theory or not, I'm passing.
Make Music For Me would have drawn my money had he entered the Preakness, but I'm passing on a win here. I'll cover the Alexis Barba trainee underneath on the exotics, but that's it.
Stately Victor, on the other hoof, is the one I'll support at the tote. He's out of Ghostzapper, another distance sire, and he's run nine races, another plus. Stately Victor is saddled by Michael Maker, a very capable conditioner, and his running style is spot on. If he goes off at 15-1 or higher, he's an auto-play on top and in all slots.
Regardless of the result of this race, the real win is that the Saratoga meeting has been saved. Thus, I can spend my summer heading up the Northway to visit the Spa and enjoy the spoils of an Adirondack summer. And perhaps I can jumpstart my summer bankroll with a bomb here on Saturday. After causing me heartburn with the thoughts of closing the famed track, they owe me something.
Bon chance.
| Niagara Falls Reporter | www.niagarafallsreporter.com | June 1, 2010 |