Vigbuster Football Report

As promised in our print edition, Lenny Palumbo is giving readers the benefit of his sports knowledge with inside tips on how to bet.

Vigbuster Football Report

The 2012 NFL season kicked off last night with the underdog Dallas Cowboys pulling off a mild upset over defending Super Bowl champions New York Giants. In the May 22 edition of the Niagara Falls Reporter I made mention of the 3-point spread perhaps appearing too low to the uniformed gambler. Not surprisingly, the general public agreed and backed the Giants, pushing the line to -3½ by game time. Of course, as is known by now, the Cowboys didn’t need them and prevailed 24-17, the final score closer than the game.

With the usual suspects (Manning, Cruz, Romo, Bryant, etc) grabbing the pre-game headlines, the difference in this one was the play of Dallas’ defensive line. The Cowboys’ front four limited New York to just 82 yards rushing and pressured Eli Manning into making uncharacteristic mistakes. To the surprise of most, but not all, he was outplayed by counterpart Tony Romo who threw for 290 yards and 3 TDs.

This sort of game is sometimes referred to as a “No Free Lunch” special. As we’ve mentioned before, it’s not in the oddsmaker’s nature to be generous and lines that look too good to be true usually are. Aspiring handicappers would be well served by exhibiting a measure of humility when determining whether or not the oddsmaker has posted an inaccurate number. There’s a lot of dough on the line and the people who make the spread are professionals with many years of experience at this sort of thing. A certain amount of respect for the oddsmaker, and the acknowledgment that he knows what he’s doing, will lead those of a humble disposition to find winners courtesy of those responsible for making the line. After all, it doesn’t matter how you cash your ticket as long as the money is moving in your direction.

“No Free Lunch” or too-good-to-be-true lines are instances of the oddsmaker tipping his hand or inadvertently giving his opinion as to the outcome. All gamblers have “tells,” the oddsmaker not excluded. Don’t get taken in by sucker bets but instead respect the line and humbly allow the oddsmaker to point you in the right direction.

Here are this week’s NFL best bets:

Tennessee +6 over New England

Despite being the consensus pick to win the AFC this year, history does not bode well for the Super Bowl loser in Week #1 the following season. The NFL’s second-best team has gone 2-11 SU (straight up) and 1-11-1 ATS (against the spread) the last 13 seasons. When they open on the road they’re 1-13 ATS since 1985. During the Bill Belichick era New England has won eight consecutive openers straight up but this trend is neutralized by Tennessee’s 9-3 ATS record as home underdogs. The Patriots’ defense surrendered 440 yards per game on the road last year and management has made several off-season moves to correct the weakness. This match-up should be a good indication of whether or not they were worthwhile. That being said, the Titans should come into this one supremely motivated to redeem themselves after suffering one of the worst defeats in team history the last time they faced New England when they were humiliated in Foxboro several years ago, 59-0. That beat down stands as the most lopsided final score in over thirty years. Look for Tennessee to give the Patriots all they want and more in a contest likely to be decided by a field goal one way or the other.   >>> TENNESSEE +6 

St Louis +7½ over Detroit

The Jeff Fisher-era begins in St Louis with a road trip to Detroit. The Lions have struggled against the NFC West losing 10 of 11 outright while going 2-8-1 ATS. QB Stafford has helped Detroit compile an excellent ATS record (17-3-1) during his tenure but his team finished last season 3-9 ATS. The Rams were 1-7 ATS on the road last year but Fisher brings with him a 15-9-1 ATS record as a road dog and is 75-50-1 ATS his entire career getting points. The club has addressed weaknesses on the offensive and defensive line and drafted well during the off-season, making it one of the most improved in the league. St Louis is far from playoff caliber but will keep games closer this year as QB Bradford continues to improve. Detroit might be looking ahead to its match-up versus San Francisco in two weeks time and appear to be overvalued here.   >>> ST LOUIS +7½

Tampa Bay +1 over Carolina

QB Cam Newton has resurrected the Carolina franchise and become the focus of well-earned off-season hype. This hype has resulted in the oddsmaker making his team a road favorite to open the 2012 campaign. The Panthers have not performed well in this role posting a 4-16 ATS record their last twenty games on the road. Tampa Bay has played just as poorly as a home dog but with the line at +1 this game is basically a Pick ‘em. The Buccaneers improved their offense with key acquisitions at the skill positions and new head coach Greg Schiano has reportedly won over his players. By all accounts QB Josh Freeman is refocused and committed to fulfilling his considerable potential and the front office moves make Tampa Bay among the most improved teams in the NFL. With a new head coach and re-energized squad eager to put a disappointing 2011 behind them look for the Bucs to pull the mild “upset” at home.   >>> TAMPA BAY +1

NCAA picks:

Maryland +10 over Temple (12pm)

Connecticut +4½ over N. Carolina St (12pm)

C. Michigan +21 over Michigan St (3:30pm)

Iowa -4 over Iowa St (3:30pm)

Oregon St +7 over Wisconsin (4pm)

UCLA +6 over Nebraska (7:30pm)

Arizona +10 over Oklahoma St (10:30pm)