The battle for control of the New York State Senate, which includes the final vote count in several very close races, and the political horse trading sure to come involving the four breakaway Democrats who make up the Independent Democratic Conference, probably won’t be decided until the middle of next month, at the earliest.
That’s the view of former Erie County Democratic Chairman Steve Pigeon, a longtime political operative in Albany. who is only too familiar with many of the players in the middle of the power struggle, including Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
Democrats have tentatively won 31 seats and are leading in two other races that, right now, are too close to call. But, if they stay in the Democratic column, they would give the Democrats a mathematical 33-30 hold on the Senate, currently the last Republican bastion in the state.
But, even if they win all the races, there is still the matter of the four conservative breakaway Democrats who formed their own Independent Democratic Conference last year and have worked closely with Republicans. Will they become part of the Democratic majority if the Democrats gain control?
The independent group is led by Sen. Jeffrey Klein of Brooklyn who has been at odds with another key Democratic senator, Michael Gianaris of Queens, leader of the campaign committee. But Pigeon believes the two men may eventually patch up their differences in the name of party unity.
“It’s going to be difficult for Klein not to go with the Democrats,” said Pigeon, if the vote holds up. “They [Independent Conference] have taken the position they want to side with the will of the majority, so I think they are sort of boxed in.”
As for their personal differences, Pigeon believes there will be enormous pressure on them to solve their problems and pave the way for an end to Republican control of the Senate and all the power and perks that goes with that control.
“It would not be good for Maziarz,” observed Pigeon, who used to be an ally of Maziarz, and worked with him during the Senate coup of 2009 that briefly engineered Republican control of the Senate during that period when Democrats held the mathematical majority.
If Democrats gain control, Maziarz would likely be kicked down the aisle and lose important positions like his chairmanship of the Energy Committee and his post as vice president pro tempore of the senate.
“His [Maziarz] strength will be less in the minority,” said Pigeon, who has criticized his former ally for his angry response to the endorsement of Charles Swanick by the Erie County Conservative Committee over Republican Mark Grisanti in the revamped 60th District. Grisanti easily won re-election over Swanick and Democrat Mike Amodeo, although his victory might be somewhat hollow now that it appears the GOP is on the verge of losing control even with him.
“They [the GOP] may have overcompensated with Grisanti and it may have cost them,” said Pigeon.
Maziarz’s loss could be a big win for South Buffalo’s Sen. Tim Kennedy (58th District). Pigeon sees Kennedy as a major figure in the new majority, should it hold and one who would be more upstate oriented than his 28-year predecessor, Bill Stachowski, who he defeated in 2010.
As for Gov. Cuomo, who has had success working with the GOP-controlled Senate, he is publicly taking a wait-and-see position.
“I don’t know how it sorts out at the end of the day,” Cuomo said Friday. “You’re going to have to count the ballots and see how the factions sort out and what alliances they make. And that’s up to them.” But things like campaign finance reform and decriminalization of a small amount of marijuana— two items on Cuomo’s wish list— might have easier sledding with Democrats in charge. But nobody really expects the governor to be sitting on his hands as the battle for control plays out.
As for Pigeon, observers believe it is too early to dismiss another Albany venture for the seasoned political strategist who has made more political comebacks than any local politician in modern history. Count him out at your own peril. Just recently Pigeon spent two days giving former presidential candidate General Wesley Clark a tour of the local scenery, and joined him on a local political talk show on WBBZ.
Stay tuned!
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