This column is intended for those ready to free themselves from a life of indentured servitude and be their own man, on their own terms.

 For those not up to the mark, if you live here locally, the Seneca Niagara Casino is available 24/7 to take from you whatever money the rapacious tax policies of your local, state and federal governments have not yet confiscated from you.

 We are talking about skill gambling here – based on logic, knowledge, discipline, hard work and a little luck, but with better odds than the stock market, commodities trading and bond investing.

 This week we’ll get into a little detail for those interested in wagering on baseball.

 Baseball is bet on a money line, based on odds. There is no point-spread like football and basketball. All your team has to do is win. While this might sound easy, the odds ensure that winning money on baseball is as challenging as other sports.

 Most newspapers list the odds for Major League Baseball everyday. The favorite is listed first, followed by the odds and then the underdog.
New York Yankees 8-5 Toronto Blue Jays 8-5 means if you want to bet the favorite, New York, you have to bet $8 to win $5, or $160 to win $100. If you bet Toronto, the underdog, you stand to win $150 on a $100 bet. The 10% difference is the house’s edge.

 Betting the favorite when odds are 6-5 means you risk $120 to win $100. 7-5 odds risks $140 to win $100, if based on the 10-cent or“dime line.”

 Wagering a 9-5 favorite requires $180 to win $100. If a gambler bets exclusively 9-5 favorites, he has to win 64% of his bets to break even. The underdog player, on the other hand, needs to win just 37% of his bets to break even.

 For this reason it is usually wise to avoid favorites on any game listed at -160 (8-5) or higher. The odds-maker has good reasons for posting steep odds. Underdogs getting 8-5, 9-5 and 2-1 odds are often bad bets too. These are usually poor teams unlikely to improve without a drastic overhaul to their lineup.

 That being said, it cannot be stressed enough that the point-spread or odds are not necessarily the odds-maker’s opinion of the potential margin of victory one team will achieve over another but what the odds-maker thinks will most evenly divide his action. Remember, sportsbooks and bookies are not gamblers, they’re brokers. Ideally, they want an even amount of money bet on both sides. When this happens, their 10% commission or “vigorish” will ensure them a profit regardless of the outcome of the game.

 The number that appears in your local newspaper as the odds has as much to do with “public perception” as the statistics produced by both teams. Since public perception is usually way off base, there are many opportunities for pros to exploit. Simply betting against public opinion can be a useful strategy.

 When a professional gambler finds a large enough disparity between the odds and what he believes is the true difference in strength between two teams, he has a play. If he can consistently find these disparities week in and week out, he has a career.

 A significant truism applies to baseball as it does other sports: most gamblers tend to bet favorites. Odds-makers know it and factor this into the line, forcing favorite players to pay a sort of “tax” for their preference. This makes it more difficult for “frontrunners” to beat their bookie. 

Similarly, most amateurs tend to bet overs rather than unders. Odds-makers are well aware of this tendency and force over players to pay for it.

Because starting pitching plays a large role in setting odds, baseball handicappers devote most of their time to charting pitchers. Baseball bettors must not only be familiar with who the top hurlers are, but their current form and that of the bullpen.

Betting on top pitchers, however, carries the same risk as betting on top teams. A lot of sucker money based on preferences and emotion moves odds in the wrong direction, not unlike the stock market. Last year’s American League Cy Young Award Winner Justin Verlander often carries a price tag of 2-1 odds or higher. The same can be said of other consistent winners like San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum or the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw. Successful gambles often back middle-of-the road hurlers in more modest price ranges.

When betting baseball totals, as many pros successfully do, be aware of the “key numbers”: Between 25-30% of all total final scores are 7, 9 and 11. The reason for this is that tie games require one more run before they end. If you’re going to bet over/unders it is essential that you stay on the right side of these key numbers.

 Also, know umpires and their strike zones. No two umps are the same. A hitter’s umpire with a large strike zone is to be avoided when making plays on the under, while pitcher’s umpires with small strike zones should be avoided when betting overs. 
Knowing weather forecasts, wind speed and direction, coupled with knowledge of ballparks, whether they have short left and right field fences, can turn the tide for or against your wager.

 Of course, be careful. There are many hypocritical laws of anti-freedom states and countries where the harmless occupation of betting on sports is illegal. Many of these same tyrannies hold that government-sponsored gambling, with worse odds, and where almost all people will lose money if they gamble, are legal. Try to avoid fascist states like these.

On a different note, Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks have released NFL Week #1 pointspreads. Local fans will not be surprised to learn their beloved Buffalo Bills have been installed as 4½-point underdogs for their road opener, September 9 versus the New York Jets.

These early pointspreads are one barometer for sports bettors to gauge the relative worth of each NFL team. ESPN can hire all the swimsuit models it wants, but the real experts are those who risk real money on their opinions. No one is more qualified than sportsbooks and handicappers whose livelihoods depend on the accuracy of their predictions.

 Here are a few Week #1 NFL pointspreads that might be of interest to gamblers:

Defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants are 3-point favorites at home versus the Dallas Cowboys. This number may appear low at first glance but every week amateurs are sucked in by “sure things.” It is not in the odds-maker’s nature to be generous. If you see a line that looks too good to be true it probably is.

Despite the well publicized but bogus bounty “scandal” surrounding the New Orleans Saints, the team has been tagged a 9-point favorite in its home opener against the Washington Redskins. This indicates odds-makers feel season suspensions for head coach Sean Payton and linebacker Jonathan Vilma, and shorter suspensions for defenders Will Smith, Anthony Hargrove and Scott Fujita will not significantly affect the team’s fortunes. The ridiculous excessiveness of the suspensions probably occurred so the NFL could distract attention from the multiple lawsuits filed against the league by former players who allege the NFL withheld knowledge regarding the ramifications of concussion-related injuries. The NCAA uses a similar tactic of manufacturing scandals to distract attention from its grotesque financial exploitation of student-athletes.

QB Payton Manning’s new team, the Denver Broncos, are 3-point favorites at home versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. This means experts think Manning has made a full recovery and will return to his previous high standard of play despite sitting out the entire 2011 season with a serious neck injury. His old team, the Indianapolis Colts, however, are a 10-point underdog on the road at Chicago. This indicates the experts believe top draft pick Andrew Luck will probably not make an immediate impact, and the Colts are destined for another losing season.