The Real Pundits in Vegas Say Bet Obama

According to the latest Rasmussen Presidential Tracking Poll, incumbent Barack Obama clings to a slim lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney, 46% to 44%.

These latest numbers, released a week after Romney announced Paul Ryan as his running mate, are within the margin of error. Those who make the assumption that the highest office in the land is up for grabs, however, would be better informed by ignoring the useless commentaries regurgitated on CNN, MSNBC and Fox News and instead consult the real experts in the world of wagering.

 Most Las Vegas casinos and offshore sportsbooks set odds on propositions like the presidential election. As has been said before, the real experts are not to be found in America’s bought-and-paid-for “mainstream media," but among the odds-makers and professional handicappers whose livelihoods depend on the accuracy of their predictions.
 And who do these experts think will be the next President of the United States? With each passing day, the answer is more emphatically Barack Obama.

 Last month, Obama stood as a 7-5 (-140) favorite to earn a second term as president. (This means that a wager on Obama to win $100 would require one to risk $140.) After he received the stamp of approval for his controversial health care package, the odds increased to 7½-5, or $150 to win $100. This turn of events was interesting because most talking heads were forecasting a surge for the Republican, Romney, due to the negative backlash generated by Obama’s latest lean to the left. As usual, however, they were wrong.

 Obama has pulled further ahead after the announcement of Romney’s choice of Paul Ryan as his running mate. Sharks in Vegas and around the world reacted immediately, so much so that the amount of money they dumped on the Kenyan-born Pretender-in-Chief forced bookies to raise the stakes to 8-5 or $160 to win $100. By this past Saturday, Obama had become a 2-1 favorite. 
These numbers contrast significantly with those generated by presidential pollsters. 

 Polls like those conducted by RealClearPolitics.com indicate Obama’s job approval rating to be split down the middle with 48% approving and 49% disapproving. Despite the fact that 61% of those polled believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, the story written by the gambling community say to expect four more years for Obama. 
This may be due to Obama’s small lead in key swing-states like Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. A new Gallup swing-state poll shows Obama holding a two-point advantage over Romney.

A recent Quinnipiac University/New York Times/ CBS News poll reveals more key inside info. In three of the most important battleground states, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, Obama leads Romney 51-45%, 50-44% and 53-42%, respectively.
 No presidential candidate has won the White House since 1960 without winning at least two of these three states. In 2008, Obama won all three.

 "If today were Nov. 6, President Barack Obama would sweep the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and — if history is any guide — win a second term in the Oval Office," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The president is running better in the key swing states than he is nationally.  Part of the reason may be that the unemployment rate in Ohio is well below the national average.  In Florida, it has been dropping over the past year, while nationally that has not been the case."

Legendary New York Yankee pitcher Lefty Gomez often remarked that he’d rather be lucky than good. It’s likely Obama feels the same way because unemployment rates rose in July from June in 44 states, and most of these are unlikely to affect the race in any significant way.

Although many consider November’s election to be a referendum on the economy, Obama has inexplicably managed to deflect criticism enough to increase his chances for re-election.. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found a majority of Americans view the economy as the most important issue facing the country. Last month, a poll released by the Washington Post and ABC News found 54% disapproving of Obama’s handling of the economy, with 44% approving.

As unlikely as it might and with the economy in such poor shape and with some forecasts of an economic crisis of unprecedented proportions, the 2012 election is Obama’s to lose.

 If you don’t agree, be prudent by simply voicing your opinion and leave it at that. Because if you decide to put your money where your mouth is, you’ll be kissing it goodbye just as sure as those robbed by Seneca Niagara’s one-armed bandits.